MLS Odds and Lines

Soccer is the most popular sport around the world and is one of the best to bet on. Major League Soccer in the United States is becoming increasingly popular among fans and gambling enthusiasts alike.

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The MLS is split into the Eastern and Western Conferences. During the regular season, each team plays a total of 34 matches, and there's always action for bettors. The competition heats up once the season is over and teams go head to head in the Conference Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and eventually the MLS Cup.

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Whether they're wagering on individual matches or futures, MLS bettors have a range of options when it comes to putting their money on their favorite teams. In this guide, we'll go over the latest MLS predictions, top sportsbooks, and more about soccer betting in New Jersey.

The Latest MLS Odds

If you want to place smart bets on US soccer, you want to know the latest MLS odds and standings. With this information, you'll stay updated on the latest top-performing teams, helping you make profitable picks.

Top Sportsbooks in New Jersey for MLS

Since 2018, the state of New Jersey has become one of the largest sports betting markets in the country. The state offers bettors a range of top-of-the-line sportsbooks where you can place wagers online or in person. The leading operators offer exciting promotions and a variety of betting options for Major League Soccer.

The top sportsbooks in the state include:

  • BetMGM
  • Borgata
  • SugarHouse
  • 888
  • PointsBet
  • FoxBet

You can wager at any of these sportsbooks if you're in the state and over the age of 21.

Types of MLS Odds

Before you start betting on professional soccer in the USA, it's essential to understand the different types of odds. There are three main ways that bookmakers display odds: American, fractional, and decimal odds.

Essentially, these forms are just three ways of presenting the same information. While these types of MLS odds ultimately represent the same value, they each require a different method for determining probability and payout.

American Odds

American odds use a positive(+) and a negative (-) symbol to indicate the underdog and favorite, respectively. The number displays how much you win for a bet of $100.

The negative means that you have to stake that much to make a $100 profit. If there's a positive number, it indicates how much you profit if you bet $100.

If the New York Red Bulls and the Philadelphia Union are playing the odds may look like this:

  • NY Red Bulls: +1200
  • Philadelphia Union: -600
  • Draw: +650

As you can tell by the plus and minus signs, NY is the underdog, and Philly is the favorite. In this example, you would have to bet $600 to make $100 on the Union. A $100 bet on the Red Bulls would pay out a whopping $1200.

How to Calculate Probability for American Odds

How do you determine the probability of your team winning when you're looking at American odds? Let's go over the calculations using the above example.

Since there are two instances (one positive, one negative) in American Odds, there are two separate equations for determining the implied probability.

To convert unfavorable odds:

Negative odds / (Negative odds + 100) * 100 = probability

So figuring out the chances of the Union winning would require the following equation:

600 / (600+100) * 100 = (600 /700) * 100 = 85.71%

As you can see, the implied probability for the Union winning is 85.71%.

Determining the probability that the underdog comes out on top looks like this:

100 / (Positive odds + 100) *100

For the NY Red Bulls to win: 100 / (1200 + 100) * 100 = (100 / 1300) * 100 = 7.69%

In soccer you also will want to calculate the implied probability of a draw:

100 / (650 + 100) * 100 = (100 / 750) * 100= 14.29%

As you can see, 85.71 + 7.69% + 14.29% = 107.6%.

The outcome will always add up to more than 100%. This extra amount is called the 'juice' or the 'vig' and accounts for the profit made by the sportsbooks when bettors place wagers.

Formula of How to Calculate Payouts

There are also multiple formulas that you need to use when calculating the payouts of your soccer bets. American odds show you how much you need to bet for $100, though not everyone bets that exact amount.

When you bet on the favorite the equation you use to calculate payouts looks like this:

Risk Amount = (Favorite Odds / 100) * Amount to Win.

So if you bet $40 on Philly and x represents potential payout:

(600 / 100) * x = 40

6x = 40

And you solve for x: x= 6.67 If the favorite wins, you could make a total of $46.67 on your wager if the Union wins the match. Betting on the underdog, in this case, would be risky, but the payouts will be higher if NY wins the game.

To calculate the payout for a bet on the underdog or a draw, you use the following formula:

(Positive Odds / 100) * Risk Amount = Amount to Win

To determine the potential winnings from a $50 bet on the Red Bulls, you use the following equation:

(1200 /100) * 50 = 12 * 50 = 600.

If the NY Red Bulls pulled a major upset and won the game, you'd walk away with $600 after only risking $50.

Fractional Odds

Fractional odds are commonly used in soccer, especially when betting in the UK. With this form, if the numerator (top number) is smaller than the denominator (bottom number), the team is the favorite. If it's the other way around, the team is the underdog.

Using the same Philly vs. New York example, the fractional odds would look like this:

  • Philadelphia Union: 1/6 
  • Red Bulls: 12/1
  • Draw: 13/2

As you can see, the values are the same, just displayed differently. Now, let's look at how to calculate the implied probability and payouts.

How to Calculate Probability based on Fractional Odds

No matter which form you’re looking at, the probability is the same, it's just a matter of how you calculate it. With fractional odds, you calculate the chance of the team winning using this equation:

Denominator / (Denominator + Numerator) * 100 = Implied Probability

To find out the probability of a Philly win: 6 / (6+1) * 100 = (6/7) * 100 = 85.71

You could use this equation to calculate the chances of a NY victory or a draw, and you'll find that the results are 7.69% and 14.26%, respectively.

How to calculate payouts with Fractional Odds

The equation to calculate all payouts is the same with fractional odds. It's used regardless of if you're looking at the underdog, favorite, or a draw.

(Numerator / Denominator) * Bet Size = Profit

For example, f you placed a $110 bet on the Red Bulls, you'd calculate the profits like this:

(12 / 1) * 110 = 12 * 110 = 1,320

A $110 wager could turn into a massive $1,320 if the underdogs were to win the match.

Decimal Odds

Decimal odds are also called 'European,' because they're commonly used in continental Europe. That said, you'll also see MLS odds displayed like this, even in American sportsbooks. Generally, if the decimal shown is less than 2.0, the team is the favorite. The underdog and a draw will typically have a decimal higher than 2.0.

For the sake of consistency, here are the odds for the same Philly vs. NY match shown in decimal form:

  • Philadelphia Union: 1.16
  • NY Red Bulls: 13.00
  • Draw: 7.50

Calculating Probability for Decimal Odds

It's relatively simple to find the implied decimal odds for the favorite, underdog, or a draw. The equation is:

(1 / decimal odds) * 100 = Implied Probability

The probability of the NY Red Bulls winning would be: (1 / 13.00) * 100 = 7.69%

How to Calculate Payouts with Decimal Odds

Unlike fractional and American odds, determining payouts with decimals shows you the total amount returned, not just the profit. To calculate the total payout, you simply multiply your bet with the decimal.

Decimal * Bet Size = Total Money Returned

If you bet $90 on the Union, the total payout would be 1.16 * 90 = 104.4. You'd walk away with $4.40 more, with a total of $104.40.

Understanding Odds

Once you've mastered the three ways that odds are displayed, you'll want to find out how they apply to different types of betting. These numbers represent the probability of any given event happening. Since you can bet on a range of different outcomes, they'll all have their own odds ratio.

An odds ratio is the statistic that puts a number to the strength of the association between two potential events, referred to as A or B. Sportsbooks consider a range of factors when determining the ratio, including player and past team performance.

Odds in a Money Line

The money line is something you'll frequently see if you're making MLS picks. This is a popular way to bet on sports and is also the most straightforward. When you make a money line wager, all you have to do is pick a team that will win.

Soccer money lines generally present three different outcomes. There are odds for each team to win, and one for a draw. A money line wager only covers the 90 minutes of playtime and not overtime or penalties. In some cases, overtime is included, so you just want to check on that with the sportsbook.

Moneyline odds can vary from an evenly balanced outcome to one with a heavy favorite and an underdog. If the game is predicted to be a close match, the odds would be -110. In this scenario, a bet of $110 would win $100. Sometimes you'll see heavy favorites of -1000. In this case, you'd bet $1000 to win $100.

If the underdogs are placed at +1000, a bet of only $100 could win $1000 if they come out of the game victorious.

Point Spread Odds

Also known as the 'spread' or 'line,' point spread odds are a predicted margin of victory for any team. This number is chosen by the bookmaker and is a balance between the teams. It's established in a way that will encourage people to bet on the underdog and the favorite.

In a point spread, the negative value -2.5, means that a team is favored 2.5 points. The underdog would be +2.5 in this case. The positive number indicates that that team gets a head start of 2.5 points. If you bet on the favorite, they must win by at least 3 points to cover the spread. On the other hand, the underdog can lose by 2 points and still cover the spread.

Odds in Point Totals

Point totals, otherwise known as the OVER/UNDER, is when you bet on the combined number of goals scored in any given game. You choose a total you think will be the outcome and then also pick whether that number to be over or under that number.

Futures Odds

MLS futures are wagers that you play on the outcome of the events that occur at the end of the season. One example of a future is who will win the MLS Cup? Throughout the season, you can wager on futures. That said, the odds will change.

Unique Odds in MLS

The more unique odds that you'll see when betting on the MLS are soccer propositions. With 'prop' bets, you'll bet on things such as the exact final score and which player or team will score the first goal. These wagers can be player or game-specific.

Player-specific Odds

Will Josef Martinez score a goal in the first half of the match? If you think so, you could place a player proposition wager. These are some of the most fun soccer bets because they involve your favorite stars. You can bet on what player will get carded, make the most assists, score first, or many other exciting outcomes.

Game-specific Odds

Prop bets can be made on a variety of things happening in any particular match. Game proposition bets are generally presented as money lines or over/unders.

An example of a money line prop bet would be what team will score the first goal in DC United v. LA Galaxy? The odds would be displayed as follows:

LA Galaxy: 1.5

DC United: 2.5

No Goal: 2.0

To determine your payouts, you'd use the same equation mentioned earlier for decimal odds. As you can tell, LA Galaxy is the favorite here, and a bet on them scoring first of $100 would pay out a total of $150. A bet on the underdog would pay out $250. If you bet on no goals scored, $100 would get you $200.

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30 June 2020

FAQs

What is the biggest win ever in MLS gambling?

There is no record of the biggest win in MLS gambling, but we’re sure there have been some lucrative ones. Especially since there have been huge upsets like the Seattle Sounders wiping the floor with LAFC. If anyone had bet a fair sum on the underdogs at odds of +550, they would have scored a pretty penny.

What was the biggest upset in MLS history?

The Seattle Sounders were doomed to fail according to the bookies, who in 2019 had them at odds of 6-to-1 underdogs. Los Angeles FC was sitting with a calculated 81% to win. In the end, the numbers meant nothing. LAFC toppled as the Sounders pulled off the biggest upset in MLS history, at least by the betting line with a 3-1 win.

Can I bet on MLS in New Jersey?

Yes, sports betting is now legal in New Jersey for online and offline wagers. The one requirement is you must be located within the state and be over 21 to place a bet.

How does MLS work?

The league comprises 26 teams. Twenty-three teams come from the USA and three from Canada. It's divided into the Western and Eastern conferences, with sides allocated into these based on location. There are 13 teams in each conference for the 2020 season.

The top seven sides for each conference qualify to go to the MLS playoffs. Here the team will compete in the knockout format. The four teams remaining in each conference will then face off until the winner of each final proceeds to the December MLS Cup Final. At the final, the Western Conference side will always play against a Western Conference team.

Who is the best team in the MLS?

Currently, in the top spot of the MLS ranking are the Seattle Sounders, followed by LAFC, who was ranked first in the last season.

Can I bet on MLS on mobile?

MLS is one of the many soccer leagues worldwide that you can bet on via mobile devices. You can use your tablet or smartphone, and place bets via sports betting apps or a mobile version of your preferred sportsbook's website.

What are the betting lines in soccer?

It shows which team is the favorites for a particular match by displaying a minus sign before the price expressed in decimal odds. The underdogs have a plus sign next to their odds.

What are the most popular MLS bets?

There are many popular markets for MLS bets. The ones most used include outright match and competition betting, various goalscorer markets, handicap betting, correct goals in the games, and over/under for total goals.

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